Foreign movers aren’t to blame for soaring Texas home prices new search from Texas Real Estate Research Center.

“There is virtually no correlation between Texas statewide home price appreciation and migration patterns over the past 15 years,” said Wesley Miller, senior research associate for the Center at Texas A&M University.

Driven by residential affordability concerns as newcomers compete for limited housing, Miller’s research analyzed the demographic and financial data of interstate migrants in Texas, particularly from high-income states, such as California and New York, over the past 15 years.

The research was based on United States Census Bureau proprietary statistics and data provided by Infuser on the residential and financial history of people moving to the state.

“Migration to Texas actually peaked in 2006,” Miller said, explaining that if interstate migrants were driving the boom in Texas’ housing market, house price increases should have slowed. accordingly since then.

“We hear so much about ‘everyone moving to Texas. Texas is such a fast growing state. Well, actually, the population of Texas is growing at a decreasing rate. What’s missing here is that Texas is a fast-growing state compared to other states in the country.”

The research found that the homeownership rate for people from other states who moved to Texas amid the escalating housing boom was much lower than the overall rate in Texas, Miller said.

“The homeownership rate for people who cross state lines in their first year — only about 40 to 45 percent of people own their homes,” Miller said. “So that’s way below the overall homeownership rate in Texas, if you look at Texans.”

According to 2019 data from the American Community Surveythe median age and homeownership rate of incumbent Texans are 41 and 73 percent, respectively.

The analysis also rejected speculation that Texas transplants from other states drove up the residential real estate market because they tended to be wealthier than incumbent Texans. Miller explained that housing costs continue to rise even as wealth disparity remains stable.

“The median income of an interstate mover in Texas is about $8,000 higher than the median income of an incumbent Texan. So there is a difference, but that difference has been stable for 15 years.”

Miller added that while out-of-state movers don’t appear to be driving annual home price fluctuations in general, they’re more likely to impact local markets, such as areas in ‘Austin and Dallas.

Miller said the continued spike in the median home price in Texas, which has reached a new recording in November to $319,112, is primarily due to factors such as low mortgage interest rates, housing shortages and the state’s booming economy.